Sooner
Tier 1 · Decideread in 20 seconds
Blended SCS
Defaultwill they pay
Recoverythe drag
Full-stack DBRcap 50%
What holds it short of auto-approve — the binding constraint
Recovery, . DAMAC Lagoons is a Tier-C community in a heavy handover-supply window. One year’s rent () clears only of Sooner’s exposure, before a 0.60 supply discount. Credit and affordability already clear — it is the unit’s re-lease liquidity that drags, holding the file in the committee band just under 80.
Decision confidence: — facts are assumed or missing: . Each is tagged in the fact ledger below.
Why this decision — in three reads
Decision · conditional approve
The path to auto-approve
No gate fails and Default is strong, but a blended SCS in the committee band (capped by Recovery on a Tier-C unit) lands just under the 80 auto-approve line. The drag is community recourse and documentation, not affordability or credit. Three concrete moves clear it:
Tier 2 · Validate the scorehow the number is built — traceable
v2 Default lens —
Will they pay / will they stay?
v2 Recovery lens — (the drag)
If they don't pay, can one year of rent clear Sooner's exposure?
| Input (live PropSearch / DLD) | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 4BR townhouse rent (median, DAMAC Lagoons) | /yr | DLD lease comps via PropSearch, 25 comps |
| Gross yield on the price | Modest; net ~5% after fees | |
| Lease velocity | Active DLD lease market → P(let) | |
| Coverage × P(let) × supply-discount | min(1, ) × × | 1yr rent at reliability covers of Sooner’s exposure; heavy incoming supply discounts it |
Recovery = min(1, rent × ÷ exposure) × P(let) × supplyDiscount. RENTAL-liquidity lens; resale data is not an input (DAMAC Lagoons returned 0 sale transactions for this segment, so recovery rests on re-lease, not resale). Blended SCS = 0.70 × Default () + 0.30 × Recovery () = , committee band (v2: auto-approve ≥80 / committee 55–79 / decline <55), top end, just under the 80 auto-approve line. v2 is spec-only (APP-1963), hand-applied on calibration-pending curves.
Sooner pricing · what-if
What Sooner finances — by tier
| Included | ||
| Flat rate | Narrower service scope → higher rate (less ancillary revenue) | |
| Financed principal | Closing-cost stack — CONSTANT across bundles | |
| Sooner monthly | 60 mo flat · disclosed FDL 6/2025 | |
| Full-stack DBR | Existing debt + bank mortgage + Sooner monthly ÷ income | |
Sooner = Closing-Fee Financing (civil master-lease / forward-Ijara), 60-month tenor. Sooner always finances the SAME closing-cost principal; the BUNDLE is the scope of services it monetizes, which sets the flat rate. Narrower scope = less ancillary commission, so a higher rate. The principal — and therefore Recovery exposure — is CONSTANT across bundles; only the Sooner monthly and the full-stack DBR change. Recovery/SCS are unchanged by bundle. Editing any field re-runs the whole chain and updates the Tier-1 tiles above.
Tier 3 · Validate the factsevery claim → its source
Fact ledger
Every claim, its confidence, and its source
verifieddocument-confirmed
estimatedinferred, not printed
assumedbenchmark / unconfirmed
missingrequired, not on file
| Claim | Value | Confidence | Source |
|---|
Source chips link to the document viewer below. Verified = printed in a document on file; estimated = inferred where the document is silent; assumed = a labelled benchmark in lieu of evidence; missing = required for sign-off, not yet provided.
Conclusions & non-obvious reads
What the documents really tell us — interpretation
Risk register
Hold points
Policy gates (v2 policy; G8/G11/G13/G14 retired)
Pass / fail — gates override the score
To underwrite with more confidence
Data that would tighten this decision
Documents